OIL 2024-08-11

It's amazing that no one talks about oil anymore, as if it doesn't matter at all. The oil price crash in 2015/2016 following the devaluation of the Chinese yuan, the drop to below zero during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the sharp price surge in 2022 all seem like distant memories. At that time, there was a perception that oil had become the new safe haven and that we were entering a new world order. Russia's invasion and the SWIFT sanctions by the U.S. were supposed to push oil prices to new heights, and de-dollarization was expected to begin. But none of these predictions came true. If we compare gasoline prices with wages in the U.S., we can see how stable prices have been over time. Of course, there were major spikes in the 1980s and 2008, but overall, prices have remained steady. The best cure for high prices is high prices themselves. In terms of trading, oil is currently forming a large triangular pattern. These patterns appear when the price is confined within a range and volatility decreases. Eventually, the price will break out in one direction, either below $60 or above $90. Given the performance of other commodities, reduced demand from China, and the overall deflationary environment worldwide... it's more likely that the price will decline towards $60 rather than reach $90. wsifunds.com #fundamental_analysis #financial_markets #world_markets #US_stock_indeX #gold #china #china_mark